User blog comment:Sylvandyr/The math behind the Battle Arena/@comment-26222799-20151108155317

Unfortuantely Amalsaba, your argument seems to be based on a flawed understanding of how random numbers and percentages work. Your single observation (lollipop 12 vs Quicksilver 10) is meaningless; ANY dragon has at least a 10% chance of beating ANY other dragon; so the fact that it happened once doesn't tell us anything. Now, if you keep track of these fights and present the results of 100 examples of Lollipop 12 vs Quicksilver 10, that would be interesting. I'd recommend you google "Gamblers Fallacy" for a start.

That said, I do believe there are "other" variables that the above calculations don't take into account; I've run enough fights that the calculator claims are "10%" to know that my win ratio is quite a bit higher then 1 in 10. My suspicion is that at the very least, it keeps track of how many times you've fought the current dragon and slightly increases the crit chance each time.