Talk:Battle Arena/@comment-26462771-20150621185915/@comment-26243899-20150624133327

@Fleepup: Your 'statistical reasoning' is faulty! If your dragon has a .1 chance of winning then the opponent has a .9 chance. Assuming the trials are statistically independent. The opponent has .9 x .9 chance of winning trial 1 AND trial 2 generalize that (1-p)^k to win k successive independent trials (^ is exponentiation). A .35 chance of winning trial 1 through trial 10. So your dragon has .65 = (1-.35) chance of winning at least 1 of the 10 trials (not 1.00 as your statement would lead naïve ones to believe).