Talk:Battle Arena/@comment-10317322-20131201174240/@comment-4830404-20131202010540

"my paladin has a 35% chance per battle of defeating the Fruitful (assuming 1/3)

the chances of failing 10 times is 1/ (3 ^10)  or 0.001693508781%

so 1/1000th of a percent"

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If your Paladin has a 35% chance of success per battle, it has a 65% chance of failure per battle. 1 - .35 = .65.

Take that failure chance to ten battles and you get .65^10 ~= .013463, which is a 1.3% chance. To get a percent of a probability, you have to multiply by 100. .013463 * 100 ~= 1.3%.

It's low, but no matter how low, if a percent is not zero, statistics states that it's possible.

I'm not going to elaborate further because this comes up extremely often and I'm always blamed because frustrated people enjoy shooting the messenger. I was asked if I checked the code recently, the answer is yes, I checked at the beginning and the end of the Paladin tournament and the code had not changed since its most recent incarnation, which has been stable for a while now.

I did my job, I'm sorry that people don't like the answer but there's nothing I can do about it. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'll go back to writing these insane PhD papers and preparing for my finals...