Talk:Battle Arena/@comment-30898527-20161230161941/@comment-26415676-20170110174458

@Happybirdy  I agree that the chances of winning do not accumulate. Each battle is an independent event. Each battle you have the same 10% chance of winning, no matter how many times you do it. 1x, 10x, 100x, 1000x. The chance of winning your 1000th battle is exactly the same as the first battle!

What I am talking about is the pattern. Imagine flipping a coin and getting this pattern:  HHHHHHHHH. What is the chance of getting another Heads? Right, 50%. The chance of getting the pattern of 10 heads in a row is 0.5^10, or  0.1%. In fact it is the same chance as getting HHTHTTHTHH or any other pattern of 10 flips. And the next flip is 50/50 heads or tails.

In the case of ADIPPS et. al., there is a 25% chance of winning against those level 20 champions. That's like rolling a 4 sided die and needing a 4. Imagine not getting a 4 for 20-30 rolls. One time, yeah, ok, that is equally likely from all other patterns of 20-30 rolls. But for many many tournaments, that same pattern comes up? To me that suggests that something is not quite independent.