Board Thread:Dragon Story Breeding/@comment-186.45.40.218-20130424231426/@comment-24250059-20131210185050

I spent some time looking over the Hyper Ch stats. I don’t see any real evidence that having more than 4 colors in the mix helps your chances, tho the data are not sufficient to be sure. It is really hard to fully trust the statistics. Based on the stats, the “best” diamond combo with a reasonable number of reports is firestorm/island (194 reports), which is a simple red, blue, green, yellow combo, and gives a 10% success rate. Yet the opening poster of this thread reports running this combo 50+ times without success. If the 10% rate were true, the chance of that is < 0.5%, i.e. (1-0.1)^50. That is, they should have had a 99.5% chance of getting a Diamond. With a 5% success rate you calculate a 92% chance in 50 attempts; at 2% it drops to 64%; at 1%, 39% success. I think the stats are skewed, probably from people reporting an exciting success, without reporting all the failures.

My best guess at this point is that TL has the ultra-rares set in the 1 to 2% range, regardless of the exact combo. I see no way to definitively tell if some combos are better than others based on the available data. Some combos ARE better than others in terms of having shorter breed times for the failure dragons, and Hyper Ch has lots of info on this. Good combos from this perspective are Mythic/Scarecrow, and Fairytale/Scarecrow. Or choose combos where the failure dragons are ones that you desire.

Happy breeding!