Talk:Battle Arena/@comment-13822330-20140113130534/@comment-4830404-20140113150812

The percentages do not seem to have changed.

You have to try 6 times for a 99% chance of succeeding with a 55% chance of success. (.99 = 1 - .45^x, ceiling(x) = 6)

For a 65% chance of success, the number to try is 5 times.

Notice that it's only a 99% chance though. There's always the possibility of getting unlucky. Just because something is probable does not mean that it will happen. If the chance is not 100%, you always have a chance to fail, and if the chance is not 0%, you always have a chance to succeed.